Dr. Esteban A. Hernandez-Vargas, Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Germany
The seminar will take place on September 20th, 2019, at Room Q1/1007 (School of Engineering) at 12h00.
Infectious diseases are persistent threats to humankind – killing annually 16 million people worldwide. The spread of pathogens between infectious and susceptible hosts remains a central vexation for science as it involves several complex and dynamic processes. The link between the infection dynamics within an infected host and the susceptible population-level transmission is widely acknowledged. However, several technical aspects of the interface of within- and between-host scales are still in their infancy.
In this talk, we present a formal mathematical derivation of the reproductive number between host as an increasing function of the reproductive number within host. Numerical analyses reveal that a Michaelis-Menten form of virus-dependent transmission is more likely to recapitulate the behavior between the two scales than a form directly proportional to the pathogen. On a computational level, a static network model that embodies age-specific human contact patterns in Europe and a within-host viral infection model can be coupled to forecast “what if” scenarios. Considering Ebola virus infection as an example, multiscale simulation results uncovered that in order to have a protective antibody level, vaccination would need to be delivered from one week to four months before the exposure to Ebola virus. The use of multiscale modeling is thus a promising tool to provide early and data-driven evaluations of vaccination strategies — possibly also for newly emerging or re-emerging pathogens.